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目的运用趋势季节模型预测法,分析江苏省2003～2007年疟疾病人季节变动规律。方法通过对江苏省2003～2007年分季本地人口和外来流动人口疟疾疫情资料进行分析,推算2008年分季本地人口和外来流动人口疟疾发病数。结果2008年江苏省1～4季度预测本地人口疟疾发病人数分别为25、108、336、137,实际发病人数分别为23、83、176、74。预测外地流动人口疟疾发病人数分别为17、94、266、94,实际发病人数分别为19、92、154、47。结论趋势季节分析法计算简单,可分析趋势、季节和周期变动,但由于其数学模型的导出忽略了不规则变动,仅适用于短期预测。一旦防治措施改变,应更新预测。
Objective To analyze the seasonal variation of malaria patients in Jiangsu Province from 2003 to 2007 by using the trend season model prediction method. Methods Based on the data of malaria epidemic situation of the local population and floating population from 2003 to 2007 in Jiangsu Province, the incidence of malaria in local population and migrant population in different districts in 2008 was estimated. Results In 2008, the incidence of malaria in local population in the first four quarters of 2008 was estimated at 25,108,336 and 137, respectively. The actual number of cases was 23,83,176,74. The number of malaria cases in floating population in foreign countries was estimated at 17,94,266 and 94, respectively, and the actual incidences were 19,92,154 and 47 respectively. Conclusion The trend seasons analysis method is easy to calculate and can analyze trends, seasons and cyclical changes. However, the irregular changes are ignored due to the derivation of its mathematical model, which is only applicable to short-term prediction. Once the prevention and control measures change, the forecast should be updated.