论文部分内容阅读
本文使用名义增加值变化来表示成本红利大小,通过Ghosh价格变动模型推导了成本红利的计算公式。依据WIOD中国非竞争投入产出表,实证测算了2014年7月到2015年7月国际大宗商品价格下跌对我国各行业增加值的影响幅度。结果发现,国内28个行业中有21个行业的增加值得到了提升,建筑业、交通运输、水电气供应等行业明显受益,增加值分别提高了5.61%、2.70%和2.20%,金属冶炼和非金融冶炼等产能过剩行业的成本红利弱于预期,行业增加值提升度仅为0.65%和0.21%,而采掘业、原油加工、废品回收行业受到了较大负面冲击,增加值降幅高达16.22%、14.98%和8.36%。
This paper uses the change of nominal value to represent the size of cost dividend, and deduces the formula of cost dividend through Ghosh price change model. Based on WIOD China’s non-competitive input-output table, the impact of the drop in international commodity prices on the added value of various industries in China from July 2014 to July 2015 was measured empirically. The results showed that 21 industries in 28 industries increased their value added, benefiting industries such as construction, transportation, water and electricity supply, with their added value increased by 5.61%, 2.70% and 2.20% respectively. Metals and non- The cost bonuses of overcapacity industries such as financial smelting were weaker than expected, while the added value of the industry was only 0.65% and 0.21% respectively. However, the extractive industries, crude oil processing and waste recycling industries suffered a greater negative impact with the added value decreasing by as much as 16.22% 14.98% and 8.36%.