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厄尔尼诺现象是一种对世界渔业有重要影响的气候事件,它的形成,使得海洋气候、水温、海流等因子也相应发生了不同的变化。本文对1980-2009年的Nino3.4区的海表温度(SST)和广西海洋捕捞产量的增长率进行了线性回归并经F检验分析,得出了它们在α=0.05的水平上回归效果显著的结论(F>Fα=0.05),且随着厄尔尼诺强度的增强、持续时间的增长,广西海洋捕捞产量的增长率也随之增大。因此,可将Nino3.4区的海表温度作为预测广西海洋捕捞产量的一个重要指标。
The El Niño phenomenon is a climate event that has a significant impact on the world’s fisheries. The formation of such El Niño causes changes in the factors such as the marine climate, water temperature and ocean current. In this paper, the linear regression of the sea surface temperature (SST) of Nino3.4 region and the growth rate of marine fishing production in Guangxi from 1980 to 2009 and the F-test results show that they have a significant regression effect at the level of α = 0.05 (F> Fα = 0.05), and with the increase of El Nino strength and the increase of duration, the growth rate of marine fishing production in Guangxi also increased. Therefore, the sea surface temperature in Nino 3.4 area can be used as an important indicator to predict the marine fishing output in Guangxi.