为了考察输入参数对MACCS程序估算结果的影响程度,以某反应堆全厂断电事故为例,用拉丁超立方抽样方法分析了MACCS程序估算严重事故后果的不确定度。由于参数变化的影响,事故导致的早期阶段个人有效剂量结果,在95%置信度下,不确定度因子约为2.9;长期个人有效剂量计算结果,95%置信度下,不确定度因子约为1.7。结果表明:由于参数的不确定性引起结果的不确定度在95%置信度下不超为3。 In order to investigate the effect of input parameters on the estimation results of MACCS, the uncertainty of the consequence of MACCS program in estimating serious consequences was analyzed by using Latin hypercube sampling method. As a result of the change of parameters, the result of personal effective dose in the early stage of accident resulted in the uncertainty factor being about 2.9 at 95% confidence level. The calculated result of long-term personal effective dose with 95% confidence level is about 1.7. The results show that the uncertainty of the result due to the parameter uncertainty does not exceed 3 at 95% confidence level.