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在日前召开的首届中国竞争力论坛上,著名经济学家胡鞍钢就中国的综合国力作了相当详尽的解读。胡鞍钢指出,如果中国保持目前的势头,到2020年,GDP将占世界GDP的22%。胡鞍钢分析,从经济资源来看,预计2015年,中国经济总量占世界比重达17.5%,可以超过美国。1980年中国经济大体占世界总量的3.16%,1998年达到10.23%。按世界银行的数据方法计算,中国经济指标提高了将近7个百分点,印度提高2个百分点,日本略有下降,俄罗斯是下降,美国变化不大。长期趋势来看,中国GDP潜在能力相当于世界平均增长率的2.4倍,如果以人均GDP潜在能力来看是平均水平的8.4倍,我们希望把这种势头保持下去。2020年有可能占世界GDP的22%。
At the first China Competitiveness Forum recently held, Hu Angang, a well-known economist, made a rather detailed interpretation of China’s comprehensive national strength. Hu Angang pointed out that if China maintains the current momentum, by 2020, GDP will account for 22% of world GDP. Hu Angang analysis, from an economic point of view, is expected in 2015, China’s total economic output accounted for 17.5% of the world can exceed the United States. In 1980, China’s economy accounted for about 3.16% of the world total and in 1998 it reached 10.23%. According to the World Bank’s data method, China’s economic indicators increased by nearly 7 percentage points, India by 2 percentage points, Japan slightly declined, Russia declined, and the United States changed little. In the long term, China’s GDP potential is equivalent to 2.4 times the world average. If the GDP per capita GDP potential is 8.4 times the average, we hope this trend will continue. 2020 may account for 22% of world GDP.