灰色系统理论自创立以来,有关其应用研究得到了迅速发展,但在植病流行及预测预报中尚未见到此类研究的详细报道。我们拟针对稻穗瘟的发病情况运用灰色预测与关联度分析方法进行研究,现将其结果报道如下: 利用汉中县1974—1978年稻穗瘟发病率和病情指数资料,用GM(1,1)模型拟合得到发病率和病情指数的预测方程及效果分别为:X(t+1)=-53.78139 e~(-3.77100E-01t)+72.05139,C=0.2090, Since its establishment, the theory of gray system has been rapidly developed for its applied research. However, detailed reports on such studies have not yet been found in the epidemiology and prediction of plant diseases. We intend to study the incidence of paniculosis using gray prediction and correlation analysis, the results are reported as follows: The use of Hanzhong 1974-1978 rice blast incidence and disease index data, with GM (1,1 The prediction equation and the effect of the incidence rate and disease index of the model fitting were as follows: X (t + 1) = - 53.78139e ~ (-3.77100E-01t) + 72.05139, C = 0.2090,