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湖南是我国自然灾害最严重的地区之一。研究湖南重大自然灾害的规律,对建立湖南防灾减灾综合管理体系具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。根据1980-2007年湖南省灾害统计数据,运用统计分析方法和傅立叶级数方法建立了灾害损失时间序列模型,研究了湖南自然灾害发生的时间和地域分布特征,以及所造成的受灾耕地面积和直接经济损失的发展趋势。结果表明,虽然近3年中湖南自然灾害的发生频率和造成的损失有所下降,但整体上依然呈现增长的趋势。
Hunan is one of the most serious natural disasters in our country. The study of the law of major natural disasters in Hunan has great theoretical and practical significance for the establishment of an integrated management system for disaster prevention and reduction in Hunan. Based on the statistics of disasters in Hunan Province during 1980-2007, a time series model of disastrous losses was set up by means of statistical analysis and Fourier series method. The time and geographical distribution of natural disasters in Hunan Province were studied. The development trend of economic loss. The results show that although the natural frequency of natural disasters in Hunan Province in recent 3 years and the loss caused by the decline, but overall the trend is still showing growth.