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[目的]通过建立艾滋病传播的数学模型,定量分析预测艾滋病的发展趋势,为进一步防治艾滋病提供理论依据。[方法]采用统计的方法,根据一组实际数据建立一个数学模型,再根据模型做出预测。[结果]根据我们的预测,到2015年底艾滋病人将达到124万人。[结论]对于艾滋病的防治,任务艰巨刻不容缓。需要在全国范围内对校外青少年、民工、边远农村地区流动人群等艾滋病易感人群进一步加强宣传教育,对高危人群进一步采取有效的干预措施。
[Objective] To establish a mathematical model of AIDS transmission, quantitatively predict the development trend of AIDS and provide a theoretical basis for further prevention and control of AIDS. [Methods] A statistical method was used to establish a mathematical model based on a set of actual data and make a prediction based on the model. [Results] According to our prediction, AIDS patients will reach 1.24 million by the end of 2015. [Conclusion] The task of AIDS prevention and treatment is extremely urgent. It is necessary to further publicize and educate the vulnerable groups such as migrant youths, migrant workers and floating population in remote rural areas nationwide and further effective interventions for those at risk.