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本文利用VAR和BEKK模型,对中国资产价格波动与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析研究。研究发现:在增速方面,经济增速与房地产价格增速之间仅有单向关系,与股票收益率之间则存在双向预测关系;在波动性方面,资产价格与经济增长之间存在显著的双向影响关系,尤其是房地产价格的波动,会降低经济增速。因此,为保持当前中国经济运行处于合理区间,对于房地产等重要资产价格的大幅波动,应该采取适当的调控措施。
This paper uses VAR and BEKK models to analyze the relationship between asset price volatility and economic growth in China. The study found that in terms of growth rate, there is only one-way relationship between economic growth and real estate price growth, and there is a two-way relationship between stock returns and returns. In terms of volatility, there is significant difference between asset price and economic growth The two-way impact of the relationship, in particular, fluctuations in real estate prices will reduce economic growth. Therefore, in order to keep the current economic performance of China at a reasonable range, proper control measures should be taken for the drastic fluctuations in the prices of important assets such as real estate.