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以博弈的视角纵观世界各国股市,牛熊交替中的暴涨暴跌无一不是投资者在一致性预期下理性选择所导致的结果。趋势一经形成,追涨杀跌的投机策略就构成所有投资者的唯一纯策略纳什均衡,投资者个人理性必然使股市陷入旅行者困境,从而助长趋势延续并导致整个市场非理性。政府相关部门的重要职责就是要在市场丧失理性时择机出手改变投资者对涨跌趋势的预期。
Looking at the stock markets of all countries in the world from a game perspective, the ups and downs in the exchange between bull and bear are all the results of rational choices made by investors under the consensus expectation. Once the trend is formed, the speculative strategy of chasing sell-offs constitutes the only purely strategic Nash equilibrium for all investors. Investors’ personal rationality will inevitably plunge the stock market into a traveler’s predicament, thereby contributing to the trend continuation and causing the entire market to be irrational. The important duty of the relevant government departments is to change the investor’s expectations of the ups and downs when the market is losing its rationality.