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展望2013年,全球原油供应受非欧佩克国家迅猛增长的影响,供应量将有一个明显的增加。但需求方面,由于全球宏观经济还将处于增长乏力的态势,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家都难以找到原油需求增长的亮点,全球原油市场2013年上半年将处于供过于求的格局。基于此,预计国际油价受供需面的拖累,最低点可能会回落至75美元/桶。但在地缘政治方面,伊朗、叙利亚、以巴问题仍未得到有效解决,这些重要的原油供应地区,还有可能在2013年激化矛盾,引发市场对原油供应中断的担忧,所以也是原油市场很重要的一个风险点,基于对地缘冲突的考量,预计油价还有可能升至100美元/桶。所以,整体来看,预计2013年国际油价会保持宽幅震荡走势,运行区间在75～100美元/桶。
Looking forward to 2013, the global crude oil supply will be greatly affected by the rapid growth of non-OPEC countries and the supply will have a significant increase. On the demand side, however, global macroeconomy will also be in a sluggish state of growth. It is hard for both developed and developing countries to find the bright spot in demand growth for crude oil. The global crude oil market will be in an oversupply situation in the first half of 2013. Based on this, the international oil price is expected to be dragged down by the supply and demand side, the lowest point may fall back to 75 US dollars / barrel. However, on the geopolitical front, the issue of Iran, Syria and Israel-Palestine has not yet been effectively resolved. It is also important for the crude oil market that these important crude oil supply regions also have the potential to intensify their conflicts in 2013 and cause the market to worry about the disruption of crude oil supply. A risk point, based on considerations of geopolitical conflicts, the oil price is also expected to rise to 100 US dollars / barrel. Therefore, on the whole, the international oil price is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in 2013 with operating ranges of 75-100 USD / barrel.