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采用多次逐步回归周期分析的方法，对江西省新余市渝水区棉铃虫发生量的长期预测进行了研究，建立了一个长期预测模型，其１９７１～１９９２年的历史符合率和１９９３～１９９４年的预报准确率均达１００％。
The long-term prediction of the occurrence of cotton bollworm in Yushu of Xinyu City of Jiangxi Province was conducted by using multiple stepwise regression period analysis. A long-term prediction model was established, which was consistent with the historical coincidence rate from 1971 to 1992 and from 1993 to 1994 The forecast accuracy rate reached 100%.