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将2005-2008年广西635个森林火灾样本分别与FY-2地面入射太阳辐射量和温度日较差值进行了相关分析。结果表明:FY-2地面入射太阳辐射量和温度日较差值两者与森林火灾的发生都具有良好的相关性。确定FY-2地面入射太阳辐射量和温度日较差值在森林火险预报模型中的影响权重系数,并在考虑可燃物类型权重系数的基础上,增加了入射太阳辐射指数,结合日最高温度、日最低相对湿度、日降雨量和日最大风速等因子的影响权重系数,建立了基于入射辐射的森林火险预报模型(简称:IR-3F模型)。利用2009-2012年广西783个森林火灾样本对IR-3F模型进行检验,预报精度达到82%。
Correlation analysis was made between 635 forest fire samples from Guangxi in 2005-2008 and daily diurnal variation of incident solar radiation and temperature in FY-2. The results show that both FY-2 ground incident solar radiation and temperature diurnal difference have a good correlation with the occurrence of forest fires. Based on the weighted coefficient of combustibles type, the incident solar radiation index was added, and the daily maximum temperature, the daily maximum temperature and the solar radiation index of FY- Day minimum relative humidity, daily rainfall and daily maximum wind speed were used to establish the forest fire risk prediction model based on incident radiation (IR-3F model for short). The IR-3F model was tested using 783 forest fire samples in Guangxi from 2009 to 2012, and the prediction accuracy reached 82%.