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依据广东省港口的实际情况,结合已有的港口吞吐量预测理论,通过分析广东省沿海港口货物吞吐量序列数据,建立了GM(1,1)幂—指数预测模型,有效地提高了预测的精度和准确度。在此基础上,运用关联度的方法,并从定性的角度分析了广东省GDP、外贸进出口额、全社会的投资总额及能量的消耗总量等因素对预测结果造成的影响,并对预测的结果进行修正。
According to the actual situation of ports in Guangdong Province and the existing theory of port throughput prediction, a GM (1,1) power-index forecasting model is established by analyzing the sequence data of cargo throughput of coastal ports in Guangdong Province, which effectively improves the predicted Accuracy and accuracy. On this basis, we use the method of correlation degree and analyze the influence of Guangdong province’s GDP, foreign trade volume, the total investment of the whole society and the total amount of energy consumption on the forecast results from the qualitative point of view, The results of the correction.