在介绍Backcasting方法的基础上,将这种方法首次应用到具有社会学属性的情报学研究中。按照Backcasting方法的实施步骤,对选定的三个情报学发展“场景”进行分析,预测其在2020年的发展状况,选择出最佳的“场景”方案,提出实现它的路径措施,以实现对未来具体时点情报学发展定位的研究。 Based on the introduction of Backcasting method, this method is first applied to the study of informatics with sociological properties. According to the implementation steps of the Backcasting method, we analyze the selected “scenarios” of the three informatics developments, predict their development status in 2020, select the best “scenario” scenario and propose measures to achieve it, so as to achieve Research on the Positioning of Information Science in the Future at a Specific Time.