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当前,全球经济正处于工业革命以来第五波长周期的下行期,而这正是我国供给侧结构性改革所处世界政治、经济的大纵深背景。从供给侧分析,作者认为经济增长的主要动力机制是因应需求而由劳动力、资本、土地与自然资源、科技创新、制度这五大要素形成的不同组合形式以及由此所产生的综合效率。基于这五大要素及其运动规律考察视角,本文构建出供给侧要素组合及结构性改革的理论模型,并以此为基础廓清政府、企业在供给侧结构性改革中的各自定位。基于长周期视野与要素运动的理论模型,我国供给侧结构性改革要立足当下,放眼长远,实施“三步走”战略:第一步是从低效过剩领域释放要素,可具体化为当前正在实施的和推进的“三去一降一补”;第二步是深化劳动力、资本、土地与自然资源、科技创新、制度等五大要素市场的结构性改革,促进要素自由流动;第三步是大力振兴实体经济、发展新经济以优化要素配置,这是衡量我国供给侧结构性改革是否取得成功的主要标志。
At present, the global economy is in the downturn of the fifth wavelength cycle since the industrial revolution, and this is the profound background of the world politics and economy where the supply-side structural reforms in our country are located. From the supply side, the author thinks that the main driving force of economic growth is the different combinations of labor, capital, land and natural resources, science and technology innovation, and system in response to demand and the resulting overall efficiency. Based on the investigation of these five elements and their movement rules, this paper builds a theoretical model of supply-side combination of elements and structural reform, and based on this, makes clear the respective positioning of the government and enterprises in the supply-side structural reform. Based on the theoretical model of long-term horizon and elemental movement, China’s supply-side structural reform should be based on the present and long-term perspective and implement the “three steps” strategy. The first step is to release elements from the inefficient surplus area, The second step is to deepen the structural reforms in the five major factor markets such as labor, capital, land and natural resources, science and technology innovation, and the system so as to promote the free flow of elements. Thirdly, The third step is to vigorously rejuvenate the real economy and develop a new economy so as to optimize the allocation of factors. This is the main indicator of the success of China’s supply-side structural reforms.