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2012年全球经济将呈现政治风险、去杠杠化、复苏减速和再平衡四大主要特征,并从金融体系和实体经济两方面对全球经济增长格局产生影响,中国经济也不能独善其身。本次欧债危机引发的全球经济二次探底,对于我国金融体系的影响突出表现为流动性紧张从外向内蔓延,对实体经济的影响主要集中在对外贸易下行风险大和贸易环境复杂。2012年全球经济增速继续放缓是大概率事件,我国经济也难以“脱钩”。在基准情境下,预计全球经济将增长3.0%-3.3%,中国经济将增长8.5%-8.8%。
In 2012, the global economy will show the four main features of political risk, deleveraging, slowing recovery and rebalancing. It will also affect the pattern of global economic growth from both the financial system and the real economy, and China’s economy will not be able to make its own accord. The second global economic dip triggered by the European debt crisis has highlighted the impact of China’s financial system as liquidity tensions spreading from the outside to the inside. The impact on the real economy is mainly concentrated in the downside risks to foreign trade and the complex trading environment. The slowdown of global economic growth in 2012 is a high probability event, and it is difficult for China’s economy to “decouple”. Under the benchmark scenario, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.0% -3.3% and China’s economy will grow by 8.5% -8.8%.