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由于水运建设项目具有规模庞大,周期长、投资大、复杂性和一次性等特点,加之水运建设项目的成败影响面大,这就使得对水运建设项目的风险进行科学合理的分析与评价变得尤为重要。本文运用crystalball软件中的蒙特卡罗模拟法进行财务净现值的风险模拟,判断项目的风险性,为项目科学决策提供依据。
Due to the large scale, long cycle, large investment, complexity and one-time investment, the success or failure of the water transport construction project has a great impact, which makes the scientific analysis and evaluation of the risks of the water transport construction project become more scientific and rational Particularly important. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation method in crystalball software is used to simulate the financial net present value risk, to judge the risk of the project and to provide the basis for the scientific decision-making of the project.