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本文以大葱为例,运用移动平均法和H-P滤波法,对北京市近3年大葱的批发市场价格进行定量分析,发现小宗农产品的价格确实存在异常波动。并且分析得出小宗农产品的价格波动主要受到生产、流通和游资炒作这三个方面影响。为了稳定农产品价格,政府应该从强化商品生产流通体系建设和农业产业化发展等方面进行宏观调控。
In this paper, for example, using the moving average method and the H-P filter method, the quantitative analysis of the wholesale market prices of scallions in Beijing for the past three years found that the prices of small-scale agricultural products did fluctuate abnormally. And the analysis shows that the price fluctuation of small agricultural products is mainly affected by the three aspects of production, circulation and hot money. In order to stabilize the prices of agricultural products, the government should conduct macro-control in aspects of strengthening the construction of a system of commodity production and circulation and the development of agricultural industrialization.