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应用马斯京根法(MSK)演算鱼洞、新泉水文站至箐口塘水文站断面河道的流量,区间采用箐口塘、鱼洞、新泉水文站实测资料建立新安江三水源产汇流(SMS_3、LAG_3)预报方案,率定箐口塘水文站产、汇流参数并移用至预报断面靖安水位站,并构建洒渔河流域预报模型,从而预报靖安站洪水。经分析,虽然MSK、SMS_3、LAG_3用于预报靖安站洪水较上下游相关关系法精度稍差,但对于无实测资料的预报断面仍有很好的实用价值,值得推广运用。
Applying the Muskingum method (MSK), calculate the flow of the river from the section of Yudong and Xinkou hydrological stations to the section of Xunkoutang hydrological station. The data of confluence of Xin’anjiang (SMS_3, LAG_3) forecasting scheme, the parameters of production and confluence of Qiantangtang Hydrological Station are calibrated and transferred to the forecast section Jing’an Water Level Station, and the forecasting model of the Sprinkler River Basin is constructed to forecast the flood of Jing’an Station. The analysis shows that although MSK, SMS_3 and LAG_3 are used to predict the accuracy of flood in Jing’an Station is lower than the upper and lower reaches, the prediction of non-measured data still has good practical value and is worth popularizing and applying.