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以大川一司为代表的日本理论经济学者认为,日本近代经济成长的初期条件即生产力水平十分低下,换言之,德川时代尤其是后期经济发展处于停滞状态。大川一司在《日本经济分析:成长与结构》中指出,“日本资本主义化的初期条件看来似乎处于初期停滞状态”,所谓“初期停滞”是指实质工资接近于生存水平的最低限度,使用的技术停留在机械化可能的最低水平,超过必要最低实质工资的生产物剩余被全部消费,没有投资可言。不过在这一类研究中,德川经济停滞、生产力“亚洲低水平”云云均以假说为前提,没有进一步提出关于德川时代经济发展模型。
The Japanese theoretical economist represented by Okawa Ishi believes that the initial conditions of Japan’s modern economic growth, that is, very low levels of productivity, in other words, the Tokugawa period, especially the late economic development, is at a standstill. In “Japan Economic Analysis: Growth and Structure,” Okawa pointed out that “the initial conditions of capitalization in Japan appear to be in an initial state of stagnation”. The so-called “initial stagnation” means that the real wage is at a minimum close to the subsistence level, The technology used stayed at the lowest possible level of mechanization, and the surplus of the products that exceeded the minimum essential wage was fully spent, with no investment at all. However, in this type of research, the economic stagnation in Tokugawa and the “low level in Asia” of productive forces are all based on the hypothesis that there is no further model for economic development in the Tokugawa era.