面对日趋复杂的内外环境,新兴市场的货币政策将出现分化。预计未来一段时间,新兴市场货币总体上仍可能会承受较大的贬值压力。近期,美联储退出量化宽松的货币政策的预期增强,引发了新兴市场的货币抛售与股市动荡。如包括印度、巴西在内的典型新兴市场中,本币兑美元汇率都创历史新低(见图1、图2);再如,截至6月21日,代表全球新兴市场股市走势的MSCI新兴市场指数今年已累计 Faced with an increasingly complicated internal and external environment, emerging markets will see a divergence in their monetary policies. Expected some time in the future, emerging market currencies may still be under greater pressure to devalue. Recently, the expected increase of the Fed’s exit from quantitative easing monetary policy has triggered the monetary selling and stock market turmoil in emerging markets. For example, in the typical emerging markets including India and Brazil, the exchange rate between the local currency and the U.S. dollar has hit a record low (see Figure 1 and Figure 2); for another example, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which represents the global emerging market stock market as of June 21, This year has been accumulated