[目的]初步探讨农业生产方式现代化进程中可能影响成人超重的潜在危险因素。[方法]纵向分析中国大陆和美国成人超重率与宏观经济、农业集约化、饲(植)方式工业化这三大层面的主要指标之间的单因素关联,并以主成分分析法消除多重共线性影响,检验多因素回归趋势。[结果]单因素分析发现成人超重率与上述三个层面的主要指标都有统计学关联。主成分回归模型以成人超重率/成人非超重率的比数为应变量,以人均国内生产总值(GDP)(千本币)、单位面积耕地作物产量(t/hm2)、单位农作物化肥施用量(kg/t)、单位农作物农药施用量(kg/t)及工业饲料产量(Mt)5个指示量为自变量。中国大陆该5个自变量的回归系数依次为1.015、1.114、1.010、1.022、1.002,美国则依次为1.010、1.131、0.993、0.964、1.002。两模型均有统计学意义。[结论]农业集约化和饲、植方式工业化与成人超重的历时性正相关能够反映使用农药及工业饲料中抗生素、重金属等添加剂的影响。 [Objective] The research aimed to discuss the potential risk factors which may affect adult overweight in the process of agricultural production modernization. [Method] The longitudinal analysis was made on the single factor correlation between the main indicators of adult overweight rate in mainland China and the United States on the three major aspects of macroeconomic, agricultural intensification and industrialization of feeding (planting) methods. The principal components analysis method was used to eliminate the multicollinearity Influence, test multi-factor regression trend. [Results] Univariate analysis showed that overweight rate in adults was statistically associated with the above three main indicators. The principal component regression model used the ratio of adult overweight / adult non-overweight as the dependent variable, per capita gross domestic product (thousands of local currency), crop yield per unit area (t / hm2), chemical fertilizer application per unit of crop (kg / t), pesticide application (kg / t) per unit crop and industrial feed production (Mt) were used as independent variables. The regression coefficients of the five independent variables in China are 1.015,1.114,1.010,1.022,1.002 in turn, followed by 1.010,1.131,0.993,0.964 and 1.002 in the United States. Both models have statistical significance. [Conclusion] The positive correlation between agricultural intensification, industrialization of feeding and planting methods and adult overweight can reflect the influence of antibiotics, heavy metals and other additives in pesticides and industrial feed.