只有经济增速降到7%这一警戒线时,宏观政策才有可能出现较大的松动转眼之间,2013年上半年即将结束。回顾总结上半年的经济发展情况,并展望下半年经济前景自然是很有必要的。坦率而言,今年上半年中国经济发展增长比我们在去年年底时的预估要差一些。尽管一季度的经济增长只有7.7%,但此后的一系列经济信号亦都显示出,中国经济正处于显著变冷之中,无论是从投资、消费增长,还是从工业增加值、用电量、企业获利等指标来看,都呈现出弱势。地方政府债 Only when the economic growth rate drops to the warning line of 7%, macroeconomic policies are likely to be greatly loosened, ending in the first half of 2013. Reviewing the economic development in the first half of the year and looking forward to the economic prospects for the second half of this year are of great necessity. Frankly, China’s economic growth in the first half of this year was worse than our estimate at the end of last year. Although the economic growth in the first quarter was only 7.7%, a series of economic signals since then also showed that the Chinese economy is in a significant chill. Whether it is from investment or consumption growth, or from the industrial added value, electricity consumption, Enterprise profitability and other indicators, are showing a weakness. Local government debt