新年伊始,照例是上年盘点与本年预测的时候,在满天飞舞的预测声中,更多的是诸如“2003是中国经济年”、“中国经济增长速度将更上一层楼”之类的声音。然而,在这里笔者却要为这些拔高论者泼一泼冷水。笔者以为,在2003年全球经济的总体运行方向并不向好的国际背景下,过度依靠出口拉动的中国经济增长高速度将难以为继,2003年的经济增长速度必将低于2002年,甚至可能跌破7％的底线。这么说有什么根据呢?首先看消费方面。先让我们摆出一组数据,2002年1-10月社会消费品零售额的增长率为8.7％,社会消费品零售总额同比增长8.6％,考虑到物价下滑 At the beginning of the new year, as usual, when the previous year’s stocktaking and this year’s forecast were predicated, the predictions sound like flying all over the sky are more like “2003 is the year of China’s economy” and “the rate of China’s economic growth will rise to the next level” the sound of. However, here I have to pour a splash of cold water on these uppers. I believe that in 2003 the global economy is not operating in the direction of the overall good international background, relying too much on export-led economic growth in China will be unsustainable, the economic growth in 2003 will inevitably be lower than in 2002, or even May fall below the bottom line of 7%. So what is the basis for this? First look at the consumer side. Let us put forward a set of data. In January-October 2002, the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods was 8.7%. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.6% over the same period of the preceding year. Taking into account the drop in prices