目的全球变暖已是不争的事实,因高温热浪导致的健康危害已引起广泛关注,综合分析近年来济南市高温月(5—8月)期间气温特征和高温中暑病例分布特征,评估高温热浪期间病例发生风险,为病例监测和预警管理提供依据。方法收集2011—2014年济南市高温月期间气温数据和高温中暑病例个案信息,并进行描述性分析。定义热浪研究期为1次高温热浪前后出现间隔≤3 d的高温日或高温热浪时间段;选择与研究期季节就近、天数相同、星期匹配、以及期间无高温日的时间段作为参考期。通过计算研究期相对参考期高温中暑病例的相对危险度(RR)评估高温热浪导致的发病风险。结果 2011—2014年间济南市高温月同期日均温、日最高温5月和8月逐年升高显著。4年间205例中暑病例以2013年报告最多(55.1%),病例主要集中于7月。病例以重症报告为主(71.2%),男性病例年龄组分布以60~79岁年龄组(36.0%)和40~59岁年龄组(34.4%)为主,年轻于女性。识别出的5个热浪期间报告病例129例,占本年度病例总数比例均在50%以上,除2个热浪期间病例发生风险无法估计外,另3个热浪病例发生风险均出现显著性增加。结论济南市高温月期间气温呈现出逐年升高趋势,中暑病例以重症为主,男性病例年轻于女性。热浪期间病例的发生风险可出现显著增加。 The purpose of global warming is an undisputed fact. The health hazards caused by high temperature heat waves have drawn wide attention. Based on the analysis of the temperature characteristics and the distribution of high temperature heat stroke patients during the high temperature months (May-August) in Jinan City in recent years, Case risk, provide the basis for case monitoring and early warning management. Methods The case data of temperature data and high temperature heat stroke cases in Jinan during the hot month of 2011-2014 were collected and analyzed descriptively. The study period of heat waves is defined as the high-temperature day or high-temperature heat wave interval of ≤3 d before and after one high-temperature heat wave. The time period with the closest season, the same number of days, the matching of the week, and the absence of high temperature during the study period is selected as the reference period. The risk of high temperature heat waves was evaluated by calculating the relative risk (RR) of the HTS cases during the study period relative to the reference period. Results During 2011-2014, the average daily temperature and daily maximum temperature of Jinan during the high temperature month increased significantly in May and August. In the four years, 205 cases of heat stroke reported the highest (55.1%) in 2013 and the cases mainly concentrated in July. The majority of cases were reported with severe symptoms (71.2%). The male cases were mainly aged 60-79 (36.0%) and 40-59 (34.4%), younger than females. 129 cases were identified during the five heat waves identified, accounting for more than 50% of the total number of cases in this year. Except for the risk of cases occurring during the two heat waves, the risk of the other three heat waves increased significantly. Conclusion The temperature in Jinan during the warming months showed a trend of increasing year by year. The cases of severe heat stroke were mainly severe and the male cases were younger than that of females. There is a significant increase in the risk of occurrence of cases during heat waves.