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本文通过在收入分布视角下构建居民保险消费的理论模型,预见了保险消费的非线性特征及其对保险市场的潜在影响。并采用2011年CHFS数据分别建立城乡居民保险消费的门限回归模型,识别出了这种非线性特征。研究结果表明:可支配收入的提升虽能促进城镇低收入群体的保险消费,但对其高收入群体的作用有限;对农村低收入群体保险消费的影响并不显著,且会使高收入群体削减保险支出。该特征在收入分布变迁背景下将会导致居民总体保险消费的增长出现瓶颈。由此,在“供给侧”充分发挥商业保险机构的创新主导作用来激发高收入群体的保险消费活力,并在“需求侧”促使收入分配政策合理向低收入群体适度倾斜,将可能成为扭转当前局面的有效途径。此外,社保收入对保险消费的引导和调节作用还有待开发和加强。
This paper predicts the non-linear characteristics of insurance consumption and its potential impact on the insurance market by constructing a theoretical model of residents’ insurance consumption from the perspective of income distribution. And by using the 2011 CHFS data to establish the threshold regression model of urban-rural residents’ insurance consumption respectively, this nonlinear characteristic was identified. The results show that although the promotion of disposable income can promote the insurance consumption of urban low-income groups, its effect on its high-income groups is limited; the impact on insurance consumption of rural low-income groups is not significant, and the high-income groups will reduce Insurance expenses. This feature will cause the bottleneck of the growth of residents’ overall insurance consumption in the context of changes in income distribution. Therefore, giving full play to the leading role of commercial insurance institutions in innovation on the “supply side” to stimulate insurance consumption vigor of high-income groups and appropriately adjusting their income distribution policies to low-income groups on the “demand side” May be an effective way to reverse the current situation. In addition, the guiding and regulating role of social security income on insurance consumption has yet to be developed and strengthened.