论文部分内容阅读
笔者采用Trade Map数据库2001—2015年中国对中亚五国农产品出口数据,利用恒定市场份额(CMS)模型,对影响中国对中亚五国农产品出口规模变动的因素进行了分析。结果表明:中国对中亚五国农产品出口波动的主要原因是中亚五国农产品市场需求的变化;同时,对不同种类的农产品,影响中国对中亚五国出口增长的因素存在明显差异,中国出口中亚五国农产品竞争力的提升以及产品结构适应中亚五国进口需求的变化,是推动第1类产品(动物类产品)、第4类产品(饮料及烟酒等产品)、第11类产品(纺织原料及纺织制品)农产出口增长的重要因素,而中亚五国进口需求的扩大是促进第2类(植物类)、第3类(动植物油脂类)农产品出口增长的决定因素。
Using the Trade Map database of China’s exports of agricultural products from five Central Asian countries from 2001 to 2015, the author uses the constant market share (CMS) model to analyze the factors that affect China’s changes in the scale of exports of agricultural products in five Central Asian countries. The results show that the main reason for the fluctuation of China’s exports of agricultural products to the five Central Asian countries is the change of market demand for agricultural products in five Central Asian countries. At the same time, there are significant differences in the factors that affect China’s export growth to the five Central Asian countries for different types of agricultural products. China Exports of five Central Asian countries to enhance the competitiveness of agricultural products and product mix to adapt to changes in import demand in five Central Asian countries is to promote the first category of products (animal products), the fourth category (beverages and tobacco and alcohol products), 11 (Textile raw materials and textile products), while the expansion of import demand from five Central Asian countries is the decision to promote the growth of export of agricultural products of category 2 (plants) and of category 3 (animal, vegetable, fats and oils) factor.