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进入21世纪以来,中国对外贸易继续保持高额顺差,外汇储备迅速增长。人民币汇率问题开始成为世界金融市场的焦点话题之一。面对上世纪80年代日元快速升值的前车之鉴,中国政府应如何调整人民币汇率形成机制以避免类似《广场协议》造成的巨大经济冲击已经成为当代中国关心的话题了。本文以这一问题为背景,结合现有汇率理论提出了自己独特的见解。并结合上世纪日元危机问题,分析在人民币升值的大环境下中国政府应该如何调整贸易、产业和汇率政策以确保中国经济稳定发展。
Since entering the 21st century, China’s foreign trade has maintained a high level of surpluses and its foreign exchange reserves have rapidly risen. The RMB exchange rate issue has become one of the hot topics in the world financial markets. Faced with the warnings of the rapid appreciation of the yen in the 1980s, how the Chinese government should adjust the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism so as to avoid the tremendous economic impact caused by similar “Plaza Accord” has become a topic of concern to contemporary China. Based on this issue, this paper puts forward my own unique opinions based on the existing exchange rate theory. Combined with the yen crisis in the last century, this paper analyzes how the Chinese government should adjust its trade, industrial and exchange rate policies to ensure the stable development of China’s economy under the environment of RMB appreciation.