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１９４９～１９９２年我国粮食单产呈持续增长趋势，但年际间有明显的波动。这种波动除受政策因素影响外，主要受气候波动的影响，尤其是单产水平的剧降往往与气候灾害比较严重的年景对应。为此，本文着重分析了气候产量的时空变化特征。结果表明，东部地区单产水平虽然很高，同时波动幅度也很大，应以稳产为主，中、西部地区以增产为主。从全国来看，气候产量变化的一致性特征明显，５０年代和８０年代气候条件对粮食生产比较有利。但个别年份气候产量变化会呈现出南北或东西方向的地域分异特征。
From 1949 to 1992, the grain yield of our country showed a continuous increase trend, but there was obvious fluctuation in the inter-annual. Apart from the policy factors, this kind of fluctuation is mainly affected by the fluctuation of the climate. In particular, the sharp drop in the yield level often corresponds to the relatively severe weather disaster. Therefore, this paper focuses on analyzing the temporal and spatial variation of climate output. The results show that although the yield level in the eastern region is very high and its volatility is also high at the same time, stable production should be the main factor while the yield should be mainly increased in the central and western regions. From the national point of view, the consistent characteristics of climate change are obvious. The climatic conditions in the 1950s and 1980s are more favorable to grain production. However, climate change in individual years will show the geographical differentiation of North-South or East-West direction.