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当前亚太原油市场的情况可以用“产量增长缓慢、出口量下降和进口需求上升”这三句话来概括。中东仍将是亚太原油进口的主要来源,而亚太未来从大西洋盆地所进口的原油在该地区市场中所占的比例也将上升,与之相对应的则是亚太自产原油份额在这一地区整个供应比例中将缩小。本文所讨论的问题涉及到亚太的原油产量、出口量以及进口需求,同时对这一地区的主要产油国和原油进出口国的情况做了概述。此外,文章还兼顾了亚太地区原油定价的现行体制,并在最后对这一地区未来石油进口依赖性的增长形势进行了预测。
The current situation in the Asia Pacific crude oil market can be summarized in the words “slow output growth, declining exports and rising import demand”. The Middle East will remain the major source of crude oil imports to the Asia-Pacific region. In the future, the share of crude oil imported from the Atlantic Ocean by the Asia-Pacific region will also rise in the region’s market, corresponding to the share of the Asia-Pacific self-produced crude oil in the region The entire supply ratio will be reduced. The issues discussed in this paper are related to crude oil production, exports and import demand in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as an overview of the major oil-producing and crude-oil importing and exporting countries in the region. In addition, the article also takes into account the current system of crude oil pricing in the Asia Pacific region and predicts the growth of oil import dependency in the region in the future.