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基于王母观站和溧阳站1953~2013a系列年降水量资料,采用Spearman和Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验、连续小波变换等技术手段,分析了61a来长荡湖年降水量的演变特征。结果表明,长荡湖多年平均降水量为1 115.1 mm,年内降水量呈明显的季节性变化;年降水量总体呈减少趋势,但仍以正常年份居多,偏多与偏少年份相当;长荡湖湖区年降水量变化周期为9.5a;年降水量变化不存在突变。研究成果可为长荡湖湖区的洪水控制、水资源利用、水调度方案制订、应对气候变化提供科学依据。
Based on the annual precipitation data of Wangyang station and Liyang station from 1953 to 2013a, the evolution characteristics of annual precipitation in Changdang Lake during the past 61 years were analyzed by Spearman and Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical tests and continuous wavelet transform. The results show that the mean annual precipitation in Changdang Lake is 1115.1 mm, with a significant seasonal variation in precipitation during the year. The annual precipitation is generally decreasing but still in normal years, The annual variation of annual precipitation in the lake and lake area is 9.5 years; there is no sudden change in annual precipitation. The results of this research can provide scientific evidences for flood control, water resources utilization and water regulation in Changdang Lake Area and the formulation of climate regulation.