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比较了两种茶碱浓度微机预测系统的准确性及适用性。在慢性阻塞性肺病（ＣＯＰＤ）患者口服氨茶碱血药浓度达稳定后，分别取一时点血用唐志立等研制的氨茶碱血药浓度及个体给药方案预测系统〔１〕（以下简称Ａ预测系统）及Ｂａｙｅｓｉａｎ法预测系统（以下简称Ｂ预测系统）预测其它时点血药浓度，对其结果进行比较、分析。结果显示Ａ预测系统预测所得数据较Ｂ预测系统预测所得数据与实际更吻合。经３０例ＣＯＰＤ患者临床验证，用Ａ预测系统所得预测值与实测值比较有很好的一致性（ｔ＝１２６１９，ｐ＞００５）。表明Ａ预测系统准确、可靠，具有较好的临床推广价值。
The accuracy and applicability of two kinds of theophylline concentration microcomputer prediction system were compared. In patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) after oral administration of aminophylline plasma concentrations stabilized, respectively, take blood at once with Tang Zhi Li et al developed plasma concentration of aminophylline and individual drug delivery system prediction system [1] (hereinafter referred to as A Prediction system) and Bayesian predictive system (hereinafter referred to as B predictive system) to predict plasma concentrations at other time points. The results were compared and analyzed. The results show that the predicted data from A-forecasting system is more accurate than the actual forecast from B-forecasting system. After the clinical validation of 30 patients with COPD, the predictive value obtained by the A predictive system is in good agreement with the measured value (t = 1.2619, p> 005). It shows that A prediction system is accurate, reliable and has good clinical value.