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大多数农作物害虫都是高度活动的 ,它们的数量和造成的为害在时间和空间上都大不一样 ,季节活动型和造成的为害率也因地域和年份而异。要预测害虫在一个区域范围的出现、数量、种群趋势和潜在为害 ,就要建立完善的监测体系。多年定点观测记录对于区域害虫预测来说是最基本的资料条件。与此同时 ,通过数学方法把害虫的发生与相关因子以数量化的形式表示出来 ,并在此基础上建立中长期预测模型是至关重要的。为了及时处理和传递虫情信息 ,计算机数据管理技术和网络技术将为此提供最重要的技术支撑。本文通过一些典型的应用实例 ,讨论了监测技术 ,预测模型 ,GIS技术 ,数据管理技术以及网络技术在区域害虫预测中的应用。
Most crop pests are highly mobile, and their numbers and causes are quite different in time and space. Seasonal activity and the rate of damage are also different by region and by year. To predict the occurrence, number, population trend and potential damage of pests in a region, it is necessary to establish a sound monitoring system. Years of fixed-point observation records are the most basic data conditions for regional pest prediction. In the meantime, it is very important to formulate the long-term and long-term prediction models through mathematical methods to quantify the occurrence of pests and related factors. In order to promptly process and transmit insect information, computer data management technology and network technology will provide the most important technical support for this purpose. In this paper, through some typical application examples, the application of monitoring technology, forecasting model, GIS technology, data management technology and network technology in regional pest forecasting are discussed.