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目的:构建儿童哮喘发病风险定量评估模型,用于筛选具有哮喘发病高风险的患儿。方法:武汉地区0-14岁的儿童及婴幼儿,确诊哮喘患儿173名,按照1∶1配对,选取非哮喘儿童173名,共346名儿童,每组随机抽取5名儿童,共10名儿童组成测试数据库,剩余336名儿童组成建模数据库,依据6个危险因素构建定量评估模型,模型构建完毕后进行数据回代拟合,并利用测试数据库测试模型对未知数据的预测正确性。结果:构建了儿童哮喘发病的风险定量评估模型,并对未知数据进行了预测判别,正确率达到80%。结论:构建儿童哮喘发病的风险定量评估,可以实现简便快速的筛查哮喘高危儿童。
Objective: To construct a quantitative assessment model of childhood asthma risk for screening children with high risk of asthma. Methods: A total of 173 children aged 0-14 and infants and young children diagnosed with asthma in Wuhan were enrolled. A total of 173 children with asthma were selected according to 1: 1 pairing. A total of 346 children were enrolled, with 5 children randomly selected from each group for 10 Children’s composition test database, the remaining 336 children constitute the modeling database, based on six risk factors to build a quantitative assessment model, the model is built after the data back fitting, and the use of test database to test the accuracy of the unknown data prediction model. Results: A quantitative risk assessment model for childhood asthma was constructed and the unknown data were predicted and identified with the correct rate of 80%. Conclusion: The quantitative assessment of the risk of developing childhood asthma can be used to screen the high-risk asthmatic children easily and quickly.