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基于1952-2009年间的GDP数据,采用最近发展起来的随机收敛和β收敛检验方法,分析了中国区域经济差距的演进趋势。如果考虑结构突变,在断点之后的时期内有近半数省份呈现随机收敛和β收敛证据,并且当断点内生时β收敛的证据更为充分。东部地区和中部地区多数省份具有相同的增长路径,形成各自的“俱乐部”。幸运的是,东部省份近年来高于全国平均收入水平的程度有所缓解;而中部不少省份也逐渐缩小了与全国平均水平的差距;西部地区则有半数省份具有相同的增长路径,部分省份近年来与全国平均收入水平的差距也有逐渐缩小的趋势,表明2000年以来的区域协调政策在一定程度上实现了预期目标。
Based on the GDP data from 1952 to 2009, the evolutionary trend of regional economic disparity in China is analyzed based on the recently developed stochastic and β-convergence tests. When structural discontinuities are considered, nearly half of the provinces in the period following the breakpoint present evidence of random and β convergence, and evidence of β convergence is more adequate when the breakpoint is endogenous. Most provinces in the eastern and central regions have the same growth path and form their own “clubs.” Fortunately, the eastern provinces have eased above the national average in recent years. In many central provinces, the gap with the national average has also been gradually narrowed. In the western region, half of the provinces have the same growth path. Some provinces In recent years, the gap with the national average income level has also been gradually reduced, indicating that the regional coordination policy since 2000 has to some extent achieved the desired goal.