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国内持续的通胀压力使PPI与CPI间的价格传导关系成为政府以及学术界关注的核心,传导关系的探讨是政府治理通货膨胀的前提,本文借鉴Hafner and Herwartz提出二阶矩意义的格兰杰因果检验方法,构建Wald形式的统计量对CPI和PPI不确定性传导关系检验发现,通胀指数PPI到CPI方向只构成不确定性的弱传导路径,而CPI到PPI方向的不确定性传导是主体路径,因此政府应从需求方入手治理通货膨胀。
The continuous inflationary pressures in China make the price-conduction relationship between PPI and CPI become the core of government and academia. The discussion of the conduction relationship is the prerequisite for government to control inflation. This article draws on Hafner and Herwartz’s second-generation Granger causality Test method to build Wald form of statistics for CPI and PPI uncertainty conduction test found that inflation index PPI to CPI direction constitutes only a weak conduction path of uncertainty and CPI to PPI direction of the uncertainty of the main path Therefore, the government should start from the demand side to control inflation.