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选择地处中国亚热带和暖温带生态地理分界线(秦岭—淮河)的信阳地区,利用1992-2012年信阳冬小麦从播种到各生长发育期大于0℃活动积温数据和1951-2013年气温、降水量月值数据,主要运用Morlet小波分析方法,分析信阳地区冬小麦在出苗、分蘖、返青、拔节、抽穗、乳熟六个生长发育阶段的活动积温和气温序列的多时间尺度变化规律.信阳地区近60a的增温速率达到0.18℃/10a,平均气温变暖幅度约为1.1℃,上世纪90年代中期开始增温较为显著;信阳地区近60a的降水量变化较为平稳,没有明显的增减趋势,降水变率为20%;这些特征与中国及全球同期的变化特征较为相似.信阳地区近60a冬小麦各生育阶段大于0℃活动积温时间序列和气温时间序列都存在着明显的多尺度震荡周期,存在着复杂的多重时间尺度的嵌套结构;各生育阶段积温时间序列存在着2a为周期的高频震荡和4~6a为周期的低频震荡,这些尺度的震荡周期信号强弱不等.研究对提高气候敏感区冬小麦产量、降低病虫害风险及应对旱涝等极端气象灾害有一定的现实意义.
In Xinyang, a subtropical and warm temperate ecologic boundary of China (Qinling-Huaihe River), the accumulated temperature and accumulated temperature data of Xinyang winter wheat from 0 to 0 ℃ during the period from 1992 to 2012, Monthly value data, the Morlet wavelet analysis method was used to analyze the multi-time scale changes of active accumulated temperature and temperature series in six growth stages of emergence, tillering, rewering, jointing, heading and milky ripening in Xinyang area.Many time scales The warming rate reached 0.18 ℃ / 10a, the average temperature warming rate was about 1.1 ℃, and the warming began to be more pronounced in the mid 90s of the last century. The precipitation in Xinyang area changed smoothly in the past 60 years with no obvious increase or decrease trend. The precipitation And the rate of variability is 20% .These characteristics are similar to those of the same period in China and the whole world.When the 60 days winter wheat in Xinyang is more than 0 ℃, there are obvious multiscale oscillation periods in both accumulated temperature and temperature time series Complex multiple time-scale nested structure; each growth stage accumulated temperature time series there is a period of 2a high-frequency oscillations and 4 ~ 6a Low frequency oscillation period, the period of oscillation signal strength of these scales ranging research has some practical significance to improve the yield of winter wheat in climate sensitive areas and reduce the risk of pests and deal with drought and other extreme weather disasters.