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根据海南省1990—2010年的香蕉产量数据,采用线性滑动平均、回归分析、信息扩散等方法,建立了香蕉理论收获面积模型,实现了寒害与其他气象灾害减产率的分离,构建了香蕉产量寒害危险性评价模型,结合地区间种植规模的差异,开展了海南省香蕉产量寒害风险区划。结果表明:海南省香蕉产量寒害危险性较高的区域主要存在于北部、中部和西部,其中儋州的危险等级为全岛最高,南部、东南部和西南部的危险性较低;种植规模较大的地区主要分布在北部和西部的沿海市县;风险以低级别为主,五指山的风险最高,澄迈、海口和昌江略低,东部沿海地区和南部三亚的风险最低,基本不受寒害影响。
According to the data of banana production in Hainan Province from 1990 to 2010, the banana theoretical harvest area model was established by using the methods of linear moving average, regression analysis and information diffusion, so as to realize the separation of yield reduction rate from other meteorological disasters. Risk assessment model, combined with regional differences in the scale of planting, carried out Hainan province banana crop production risk risk zoning. The results showed that the areas with high risk of chilling hazard of banana production in Hainan Province mainly existed in the northern, central and western areas, with Danzhou being the highest in danger level and the less dangerous in the southern, southeast and southwest regions. Large areas are mainly distributed in the coastal cities and counties in the north and west; low-level risk, Wuzhishan the highest risk, Chengmai, Haikou and Changjiang slightly lower, the eastern coastal areas and the southern part of Sanya, the lowest risk, basically free from chills .