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本文建立一个非对称误差修正模型,考察了我国成品油价格的扭曲性在新定价机制实施前后的动态变化。研究发现,国际原油价格的非对称性传导和国内石油价格管制是我国成品油价格扭曲性产生的根本原因。新定价机制有效降低了成品油价格的扭曲性,总体降幅约为40%。同时,通过对未来油价改革的模拟得到,只有取消国际原油平均定价,继而采用盯住印尼米纳斯原油的定价方式才能进一步降低成品油价格的扭曲程度。
In this paper, an asymmetric error correction model is established to investigate the distortions of the refined oil prices in China before and after the implementation of the new pricing mechanism. The study finds that the asymmetric transmission of international crude oil prices and the domestic oil price regulation are the fundamental reasons for the distorted prices of refined oil products in China. The new pricing mechanism has effectively reduced the distortions in refined oil prices, with an overall decline of about 40%. At the same time, through the simulation of future oil price reform, we can only further reduce the degree of distorting the refined oil price by canceling the average price of international crude oil and then fixing the price of Minas crude oil in Indonesia.