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目的分析北京市2010-2013年急性出血性结膜炎(acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis,AHC)流行病学特征,预测2014年AHC流行趋势。方法利用《传染病报告信息管理系统》的监测资料,对2010-2013年北京市AHC流行特点进行描述性分析,采用时间序列分析的方法预测2014年AHC流行情况。结果 2010-2013年北京市AHC发病水平相对较低,发病率呈逐年下降趋势;AHC全年均有发病,7~9月份高发;在密云县(4.04/10万)、房山区(2.49/10万)等远郊区县发病率高;20~39岁组报告病例数最多(48.26%),男女性别比为1.61∶1;发病人群主要集中在干部职员和学生中。对2014年AHC发病水平进行趋势预测,显示AHC发病水平会低于2013年同期水平,发病高峰为9月。结论北京市2010-2013年AHC发病水平呈下降趋势,并在2014年继续下降,发病高峰出现在夏季。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) in Beijing from 2010 to 2013 and forecast the trend of AHC in 2014. Methods By using the monitoring data of Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System, the descriptive analysis of epidemic characteristics of AHC in Beijing from 2010 to 2013 was conducted. The time series analysis was used to predict the prevalence of AHC in 2014. Results The incidence of AHC in Beijing from 2010 to 2013 was relatively low, with the incidence decreasing year by year. The incidence of AHC was high throughout the year, with a high incidence in July and September. In Miyun County (4.04 / 100,000) and in Fangshan District (2.49 / 10) Million) outskirts counties and other high incidence; 20 to 39-year-old group reported the largest number of cases (48.26%), male to female ratio was 1.61: 1; the incidence of the crowd mainly in cadres and students. The forecast of the incidence of AHC in 2014 shows that the incidence of AHC will be lower than the same period in 2013 and the peak incidence will be September. Conclusions The incidence of AHC in Beijing from 2010 to 2013 showed a decreasing trend and continued to decline in 2014 with the onset peak in summer.