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国内外学者无论是从理论上还是实证上的研究都证实了对外贸易与经济增长存在着密切的关系。本文采取了京津冀地区1979-2008年的进出口数据和地区生产总值,对该地区的对外贸易与经济增长间的关系进行了实证分析和检验。得出基本结论如下:长期来看,京津冀地区的进出口共同促进了经济增长;短期来看,进口对经济增长有抑制作用,出口对经济增长有促进作用,且促进作用明显强于抑制作用;就他们之间格兰杰因果关系而言,该地区的经济增长与进口之间以及出口与进口之间存在明显的单向因果关系。
Domestic and foreign scholars have confirmed that there is a close relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, both theoretically and empirically. This paper adopts the import and export data and regional GDP of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province from 1979 to 2008, and makes an empirical analysis and test on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in the region. The basic conclusions are as follows: In the long run, the import and export in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province jointly promote the economic growth; in the short run, the import has an inhibitory effect on the economic growth, the export promotes the economic growth, and the promotion effect is obviously stronger than the inhibition In terms of the Granger causality between them, there is a clear one-way causal link between economic growth and imports in the region and between exports and imports.