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基于宁夏地区1978—2010年旱灾灾情要素年资料和23个气象站1971—2011年月平均气温和月降水量资料,运用Mann-Kendall趋势分析和突变检验方法,详细分析了该地区近33年旱灾灾情及近41年气候的时空变化特征,在此基础上,剖析了持续性旱灾产生的气候背景。结果表明:1978—2010年宁夏地区旱灾呈持续性加重趋势,受灾人口、农作物受灾面积和直接经济损失增速分别为28.78万人/10a、3.16万hm2/10a和8 504.04万元/10a。空间变化上,旱灾加重速度由中部向北、向南呈减慢趋势。1971—2011年宁夏地区气候总体呈暖干化趋势,年平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温的升温率分别为0.42℃/10a、0.37℃/10a和0.50℃/10a,增暖表现为全年温度升高,年平均气温和平均最高气温于20世纪90年代早期发生了显著增暖突变;降水量呈减少趋势,但不显著。宁夏持续性旱灾是气温持续快速上升和降水量减少共同作用的结果,其中气温显著增高是该地区干旱灾害加剧的主要气候因素。
Based on the elemental year data of drought disaster in 1978 and 2010 in Ningxia and the monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data of 23 weather stations in 1971-2011, a Mann-Kendall trend analysis and mutation test method were used to analyze the recent 33 years of drought Disaster and the climate change over the past 41 years. On this basis, the climatic background of the persistent drought was analyzed. The results showed that in the period from 1978 to 2010, the drought in Ningxia continued to increase, with the affected area, the affected area of crops and the direct economic losses increasing by 287,800 / 10a, 31,200 hm2 / 10a and RMB 8,504,400 / 10a, respectively. In terms of spatial variation, the rate of drought aggravating from the central part to the north and slowing down to the south. The climate of Ningxia from 1971 to 2011 showed an overall trend of warming and drying. The warming rates of annual average temperature, mean maximum temperature and minimum temperature were 0.42 ℃ / 10a, 0.37 ℃ / 10a and 0.50 ℃ / 10a, respectively. Temperatures, mean annual temperatures, and mean maximum temperatures experienced significant warming mutations in the early 1990s; precipitation decreased, but not significantly. The persistent drought in Ningxia is the result of the continuous and rapid increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation. The significant increase of temperature is the main climatic factor of drought disaster in this area.