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本文从最优货币区和增长趋同角度对东亚15个经济体的趋同性进行了实证分析,利用欧洲货币一体化中的趋同条约为参考标准考察了东亚的名义趋同,并对人均实际收入的σ-趋同、绝对β-趋同进行了检验,同时从产出结构层次对东亚的结构趋同性进行了比较分析。实证结果表明东亚经济体出现了一定的趋同,但并不明显,与货币一体化的要求有很大的距离,东亚实现统一货币的道路还很漫长。
This paper makes an empirical analysis of the convergence of the 15 economies in East Asia from the perspective of the optimal monetary area and growth convergence. By using the convergence treaty in European monetary integration as a reference standard, we examine the nominal convergence of East Asia and estimate the σ - Convergence, Absolute β-Convergence were examined. At the same time, structural convergence of East Asia was comparatively analyzed from the level of output structure. The empirical results show that there has been some convergence in East Asian economies, but it is not obvious. There is a long way to go for monetary integration. The road to East Asia’s realization of a unified currency is still long.