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基于广州市2000年1季度～2007年2季度的季度数据,本文运用协整方法、Granger检验对广州市房地产销售价格指数与地区GDP、人均可支配收入水平等区域经济指标之间的长期均衡关系和因果关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,房地产销售价格指数与地区GDP、人均可支配收入水平之间存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系;同时地区GDP与房地产价格之间具有双向因果关系,二者互相促进。
Based on the quarterly data of Guangzhou in the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2007, this paper uses the cointegration method and Granger test to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship between Guangzhou’s real estate sales price index and regional economic indicators such as regional GDP and per capita disposable income And the causal relationship between the empirical analysis. The empirical results show that there is a long-term stable dynamic equilibrium relationship between the real estate sales price index and regional GDP and per capita disposable income. At the same time, there is a two-way causal relationship between GDP and real estate prices in the region and the two promote each other.