越来越多的证据显示马年楼市处于一个危险的时刻,除了任志强与王石等人的警告外,有学者认为,纵观世界经济发展史,很少有国家的房地产市场可以连续十多年持续上涨而不调整的。如今已有太多的迹象显示,我国房地产市场自2003年以来的黄金发展期即将结束。一些数据似乎也在支撑着这样的判断,某机构统计数据显示,1月份北京商品住宅共成交6908套,成交面积74.42万平方米,成交套数、成交面积的环比、同比均萎缩了四至五成左右。但是,解读这样的数据与现象要特别小心。因为中国楼市似乎成了一个九命猫,摔了几次仍从绝境处触底大反弹。最典型的是2009年二季度与2013年二季度两次楼市戏剧性的大逆转。2013年楼市突然暴涨出现了一个空头死绝的形态,从 More and more evidence shows that the property market in the Year of the Horse is at a dangerous time. Apart from the warnings of Ren Zhiqiang and Wang Shi, some scholars think that looking at the history of world economic development, few real estate markets in the country can continue for more than a decade Rise without adjustment. There are already too many signs that the golden period of development of China’s real estate market since 2003 is coming to an end. Some data also seem to support such a judgment, an agency statistics show that in January Beijing completed a total of 6908 sets of commercial housing transactions, the transaction area of ​​744200 square meters, the transaction volume, the chain area, a year-on-year decline of about four to five percent . However, be very careful when interpreting such data and phenomena. Because the Chinese property market seems to have become a nine-hit cat, fell a few times still hit a bottom from the brink of a big rebound. The most typical is the dramatic reversal of the property market in the second quarter of 2009 and the second quarter of 2013. In 2013, the property market suddenly skyrocketed to a pattern of bearish death