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由于缺乏对地震孕育和发生机理的认识,地震前兆异常判别受到人们的认识水平、周围环境甚至心理因素的影响,带有很大的随意性,以致在地震预报中出现诸多的怪异现象:地震前兆多是事后总结出来的;绝大多数异常之后没有地震发生;多数地震之前测不到前兆异常;前兆测值对近处地震无反应,但其异常与远处地震对应较好;前兆异常缺乏重现性;异常数量与台站多寡、震情紧张程度密切相关,等等。这些都说明,在地震科学的研究中,我们仍应从最基础的工作做起,再逐步地实现地震预报。
Due to the lack of understanding of the mechanism of earthquake occurrence and occurrence, the anomaly detection of earthquake precursors is affected by the level of people’s cognition, the surrounding environment and even the psychological factors with a great deal of randomness, resulting in many weird phenomena in earthquake prediction: earthquake precursors Most of them were summed up afterwards; no earthquakes occurred after the vast majority of anomalies; precursory anomalies were not detected before most earthquakes; and the precursory measurements did not respond to nearby earthquakes, but the anomalies corresponded well to distant earthquakes; The number of anomalies is closely related to the number of stations, the degree of earthquake stress, and so on. All this shows that in the study of earthquake science, we should start with the most basic work and then gradually realize the earthquake prediction.