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“地震链”是较长距离范围内的中等地震丛集,由一系列统计上稀少的成对地震构成,成对的地震在时间及空间上紧密靠近(“近邻地震”)。地震链被认为是大地震具有几个月时间尺度的前兆现象。本文中我们利用随机地震目录,通过大量的检验证实该假设。此外,在地震链参数和某些特性改变的前提下,研究其稳定性。我们发现了两个不变的参数:它们表现出地震相关的空间和能量标度关系。这两个参数与其后的地震震级之间显示出较好的相关性。地震链是地震预报前兆逆向追踪算法(RTP)的第一步,该算法目前已被应用于正向预测检验。完整的RTP算法不属于本文的讨论范围,但是本文结果对证实RTP方法很重要。
The “earthquake chain” is a medium-sized earthquake cluster over a longer distance, consisting of a series of statistically rare pairs of earthquakes, with pairs of earthquakes close in time and space (“near earthquakes”). The earthquake chain is considered as a precursor to a large earthquake with a few months’ time scales. In this paper, we use a random earthquake catalog, confirmed by a large number of tests this hypothesis. In addition, under the precondition that the parameters and characteristics of the seismic chain are changed, the stability is studied. We found two invariant parameters: they show the relationship between the seismic-related space and the energy scale. These two parameters show a good correlation with the magnitude of the subsequent earthquakes. Seismic chain is the first step of the earthquake prediction precursor reverse tracking algorithm (RTP), which has been applied to forward prediction test at present. The complete RTP algorithm is beyond the scope of this article, but the results of this article are important for validating the RTP method.