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概率预报的基本思想是利用地震历史中表现出来的统计规律去推测未来。在一定概率意义下,给出下次地震可能发生的时间界限,或是在指定时间内,给出地震发生的概率,对于研究地震区域划分,提供抗震烈度等问题都是有一定意义的。这里仅从地震序列本身提取预报信息,没有考虑发震时间与各种前兆观测的关系,也没有考虑时间与地点和强度的相关。
The basic idea of probability forecasting is to use the statistical laws shown in the history of the earthquake to infer the future. Given a certain probability, given the time limit for the next earthquake, or given the probability of occurrence of the earthquake within a specified time, it is of some significance to study the division of the seismic area and provide the seismic intensity. Here, only the prediction information is extracted from the earthquake sequence itself, regardless of the relationship between the onset time and various precursor observations, and no consideration is given to the correlation between time and location and intensity.