先通过VAR模型的脉冲响应分析和方差分解,研究了中国总产值变化量、总消费变化量和总投资变化量之间的关系,得出总消费和总投资联合对总产值有正的影响,而总消费和总投资之间相互影响、方向相同.其次,通过建立VECM模型分析了中国总产值、总消费、总投资之间的短期非均衡关系及其调整机制,并进行了短期预测. Through the VAR model’s impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper studies the relationship between the change of total output value, the change of total consumption and the total investment, and concludes that the total consumption and the total investment have a positive impact on the total output value, While the total consumption and the total investment have the same influence and direction.Secondly, through the establishment of the VECM model, the short-run imbalanced relations between China’s total output value, total consumption and total investment and its adjustment mechanism are analyzed and the short-term forecast is made.